Barclays: US nat gas drops 3 cents to $3.75 MMBtu

Last Updated : November 03, 2011 11:18

LONDON (Commodity Online): The Natural Gas market sold off on the day as the weather outlook shifted to the warmer side. The prompt contract lost three cents, to $3.75/MMBtu, while Calendar 2012 finished at $4.00 flat, down by four cents.

Calendar 2013 took a harder hit and dropped five cents, to $4.56. Incidentally, the January 2013 contract closed at the lowest price level in that contract's history, further emphasizing the strong bearish sentiment in the market.

The weather outlook in the 6-10 day period shows a colder-than-normal West balanced by a warmer-than-normal East.

But with the key consuming regions centered around the Northeast, an incremental fall in expected HDDs in that region indicates that overall heating demand for the period can soften.

The market consensus for Thursday's EIA weekly storage report is an injection of 69 Bcf, similar to the actual number for the same time last year.

Cash prices were mostly lower on the day. Henry Hub cash slipped 10 cents, to $3.39. SoCalBorder moved four cents lower, to $3.56, as the persistent coldness in the West moderated on the day, while New York (Transco-Z6) dropped 6 cents, to $3.60.

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Barcalys: US nat gas drops 7 cents to $3.52 MMBtu on EIA storage report

Last Updated : October 28, 2011 10:51

LONDON (Commodity Online): The prompt contract suffered as the EIA weekly storage report churned out a larger-than-consensus injection number. The November contract came off 7 cents to $3.52/MMBtu.

Calendar 2012 and 2013 both lost a meager penny to $4.02 and $4.59, respectively. Early next week could see much colder than normal temperatures spreading across most of the East, Midwest, and Southern states, while the weather outlook for the East in the 6-10 day period has also trended colder on the day.

The EIA weekly storage report showed a net injection of 92 Bcf, 6 Bcf above consensus. The East added 44 Bcf, while the West piled on 7 Bcf. The stock in the Producing Region went up 41 Bcf.

Inventory is now 28 Bcf below last year's level at the same time and 158 Bcf above the 5-year average. Currently at 3.7 Tcf, the storage level is well on its way to finish October around our projected 3.8 Tcf.

Cash prices were mostly mixed on the day. Henry Hub cash lost 6 cents, to $3.59. SoCalBorder dropped 9 cents, to $3.61, while New York (Transco-Z6) rose 2 cent, to $4.01. The new intra-Marcellus Tennessee Zone 4 moved 2 cents down, to $1.09.

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